Fantasy Friday: My Do-Not-Draft List

As an avid fantasy football, I’d love to share my predictions and opinions with Eagles nation. Admittedly, I’m not highly qualified to be a fantasy ‘expert’, but who is? I generally finish a little above average, but I don’t pretend to have some magic championship recipe. Let me know whether or not you are interested in reading more regular fantasy columns in the comments section below.

For the inaugural Fantasy Friday post, I will try to slow down the hype trains of 5 players who are being overrated by experts right now. Keep in mind that everybody’s draft board will look a lot different come August:

Randall Cobb, WR, GB – Cobb has unlimited upside in PPR and return yardage leagues, but in standard formats, he will disappoint owners who reach for him in the third or fourth rounds. He will catch a bunch of passes, but won’t rack up yardage at a fast clip because all of Aaron Rodgers’ down field targets are intended for Jordy Nelson and James Jones. After drafting a pair of running backs, the Packers also figure to take away Cobb’s rushing attempts. There are so many mouths to feed in Green Bay and only one ball, so Cobb figures to be a low-end WR2 as an underneath slot receiver.

Robert Griffin III, QB, WSH – It amazes me that RG3 is talked about as a fourth or fifth round pick. There are so many good quarterback options out there that rolling the dice on Griffin and his knee would be ludicrous. Remember, Griffin only threw for 3,200 yards and 20 scores last season and figures to cut down on his rushing attempts in 2013. Fantasy owners will inevitably make panic moves and reach for their starting quarterbacks, but take Tony Romo or Russell Wilson instead.

Percy Harvin, WR, SEA – Harvin is a dynamic talent, but don’t buy the rumors that Seattle will run its offense through him. Everything starts with Marshawn Lynch for the Seahawks, and that run-first, slow-paced offense will take away opportunities for Harvin. Unlike Minnesota, Seattle has other legitimate receiving threats who will also compete with Harvin for targets. For example, the Seahawks view Sidney Rice as a number 1 receiver, but he only caught 50 passes in 2012. I’d be shocked if Harvin topped 1,000 yards, and he shouldn’t go anywhere near the third round.

Eddie Lacy, RB, GB – I have fallen into the trap of taking Packers running backs on more than one occasion. No Packer has topped 190 carries or 4 rushing TDs since 2009, and don’t cross your fingers that Lacy will be the first to do either. He doesn’t play on passing downs, has serious medical concerns with his toe, and enters a crowded backfield where he will have to hold off Johnathan Franklin, DuJuan Harris, Alex Green, and John Kuhn for carries. There is no indication that the Packers will suddenly anoint a feature back and Lacy should be viewed as a low-end RB3.

LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI – As an Eagles fan, I recognize that McCoy has tremendous upside in a system that will feature his abilities for the first time in his career. He should get plenty of opportunities to run the ball with Chip Kelly calling the shots, but don’t get carried away and take him in the first round. The chance that the Eagles offense crashes and burns is very real, and fantasy owners don’t want to be stuck with a bust of a first round pick if that happens. McCoy’s role in the passing game will be slashed, he will cede carries to Bryce Brown and potentially Felix Jones, and he doesn’t figure to approach the 20 TDs he posted in 2011 on a rebuilding squad. Though McCoy could easily surpass 300 carries, expect his rushing average to plummet as defenses key on him. He’s a borderline RB1 who simply isn’t worth the risk in the opening round.

 

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